Fire Blight Prediction Models

Again this year, Michael Celetti, OMAFRA Plant Pathologist, Horticulture Crops Program Lead, will be developing fire blight risk prediction maps for the province. These will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday from May 1 until the end of bloom and will be posted on the OMAFRA website, as well as distributed through the OAG.

If you are interested in running fire blight prediction models for your own orchard, there are two models that have been developed to help forecast conditions that lead to blossom infection: Maryblyt and Cougar Blight. Daily information on temperature and rainfall, as well as key observations of tree development, including 50% green tip, first bloom and petal fall are important. With many regions reaching green tip or near it, now is the time to familiarize yourself with the models if you're planning to use them.

Click here for a free download of the Cougar Blight model or visit the Chelan-Douglas County Washington State University Extension website.

Click here for a free download of the Maryblyt model or visit the West Virginia University's Kearneysville Tree Fruit Research and Education Center website.


For more information:
Toll Free: 1-877-424-1300
E-mail: ag.info.omafra@ontario.ca